To me what was of particular interest this week was the
defense conference on Operation “Pillar of Defense” in Herzliya on Tuesday. I
think the reason for it being so interesting and exciting was based on two
parts. The first is that the discussion of the operation conducted in November,
2012, is profoundly connected to my independent study on the evolution of
Israeli military operations in Gaza. The
ability to ask a question to General Amos Gilad, one of the architects of the
operation, as well as talking to others about the relationship of the military
and political goals really has helped further my study on the topic of Gaza
military operations.
However,
what really stuck with me was regarding the future. There is no doubt, said the
majority of the panel, that the operation was an astonishing success with
limited civilian casualties in retrospect to the sheer number of sorties flown
by the IAF (Israel Air Force). But is it in fact a “success” if a status quo is
maintained and the threat of Hamas persists? As a consequence of maintaining a
status quo even after a successful operation, Israel will be forced into
situations in which it must launch incursions, either by airstrikes or ground
assaults, into the Gaza Strip in the foreseeable future. As a result this will increasingly
cost more money and lives, potentially damaging Israel’s morale, resilience and
even legitimacy should operations go wrong (like Operation “Cast Lead”).
Deterrence I believe is good, and in some circumstances it can actually bring about
peace, if not a cold one, such as the relative calm that Israel and Syria
shared prior to the Syrian Civil War. But I don’t see Hamas being like the
Assad regimes of Syria, due in part to differing realities on the ground such
as Hamas’ necessity to portray itself as continuing the fight against Israel.
Thus,
I do agree with the panel that the operation itself was a success, but I do
question the long-term strategy of maintaining a status quo in relation to Hamas in Gaza.
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