Pipeline Diplomacy and Israel

On this trip I have been devoting much of my focus on my independent study. So when we went to the two-part conference on Turkey I was not entirely excited for it since it was outside my field of study and, not to mention, my lack of much interest in Turkish-Israeli relations. I am happy to say that I was glad to go to the conference for two main reasons. The first reason was the topics focused at the conference were a lot different than I had previously thought. Rather than just focusing on Turkish-Israeli relations, the panel discussions were on various topics including the rise of Islamism in the nation and AKP, Kurdish-Turkish relations, and the relation between the government and media in Turkey. All of these discussions were simply fascinating both from a standpoint of not much knowledge on some of the subjects and the interesting nature of discussions.

            What really interested me was the discussion on Turkey and energy security in the world. I have done research on Russia and its oil and gas industry, especially in its heavy reliance on its natural resources to stabilize and grow its economy, and have known the competitiveness between Turkey and Moscow in securing pipelines to the West. I did not know about Turkey’s ambitions in Iraq in exporting Iraqi oil through pipelines existing through Turkey, which says to me at least that despite Russia’s overall dominance in the market, Turkey is able to tap reserves in oil rich nations like Iraq and Azerbaijan. I followed up with the professor who spoke on the topic about how Turkey can break Transneft’s, Russia’s state-owned pipeline company that holds the rights to most Soviet-era pipelines in the former USSR, iron grip on the flow of oil and gas. His answer to me seemed a bit confusing as he reiterated his point that Turkey has looked to Iraq and Azerbaijan, countries within its neighborhood, to establish itself as an energy hub. I would truly like to know if Turkey is attempting to exert commonality and influence in Turkic regions of the former Soviet Union such as Turkmenistan, which has massive reserves of natural gas so vital to Europe but is controlled mostly by the Russians, in order to gain pipeline rights. As the “Great Energy Game” plays out, with countries vying for strategic reserves of gas and oil such as in the Arctic Ocean, it will be interesting to see how Turkey attempts to expand idea of an export hub and how Russia will continue to try to hold on to its dominance as it would be a threat to the Russian petro-state if had to compete against other nations.

            The question then becomes how does this deal with Israel at all. The simple answer is that it does and does not affect relations with Israel. It does in the fact that Turkey, should it continue to pursue a policy of becoming an energy hub and building pipelines to Europe, it might very well not see relations with Israel in its best interests. Turkey and the AKP may look to oil producing states more heavily, including nations that do not look kindly upon Israel. Also with such a focus on relations with Central Asian nations in securing pipeline rights, more money, effort, and time will go to maintain said relations vis-à-vis a reduction in all three categories with Israeli-Turkish relations. There is also now the issue of the massive deposit of natural gas in the Mediterranean. Turkey might very well claim the gas deposit as its own, and challenge Israel over the rights to drilling. This would harm any relations between the two nations. This, however, might not be the case as Turkey might see it pragmatic to have relations with Israel for military and trade cooperation. Turkey might see it in its interests in pipelines to ship Israeli natural gas to Europe, thus advancing its relative power both through monetary gain and real power (economically and militarily). There could also be potential changes in Turkey’s foreign policy with instability rocking many potential and existing partners in the Middle East. What is true is that energy resources might very well be a the crux or coffin for any future relations between Israel and Turkey, which could have affects on a global scale as the emerging and developed nations thirst for even greater amounts of energy.